In this study, we analyze the dynamic usage history of Nature publications
over time using Nature metrics data. We conduct analysis from two perspectives.
On the one hand, we examine how long it takes before the articles' downloads
reach 50%/80% of the total; on the other hand, we compare the percentage of
total downloads in 7 days, 30 days, and 100 days after publication. In general,
papers are downloaded most frequently within a short time period right after
their publication. And we find that compared with Non-Open Access papers,
readers' attention on Open Access publications are more enduring. Based on the
usage data of a newly published paper, regression analysis could predict the
future expected total usage counts.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures and 4 table
