An investigation of the reasons for the changes in particularly M. paradoxus assessment results from the May to the September Reference Case (RC) assessments shows these to be almost entirely a consequence of the changed formulations for selectivities, with updating of and further years’ data having little impact. The probability of a TAC drop of greater than 5% under the current OMP is not high, and in terms of the September RC is not forecast to occur with more than 5% probability before the end of the decade
