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Unsupervised neural models for country and political risk analysis

Abstract

This interdisciplinary research project focuses on relevant applications of Knowledge Discovery and Artificial Neural Networks in order to identify and analyze levels of country, business and political risk. Its main goal is to help business decision-makers understand the dynamics within the emerging market countries in which they operate. Most of the neural models applied in this study are defined within the framework of unsupervised learning. They are based on Exploratory Projection Pursuit, Topology Preserving Maps and Curvilinear Component Analysis. Two interesting real data sets are analyzed to empirically probe the robustness of these models. The first case study describes information from a significant sample of Spanish multinational enterprises (MNEs). It analyses data pertaining to such aspects as decisions over the location of subsidiary enterprises in various regions across the world, the importance accorded to such decisions and the driving forces behind them. Through a projection-based analysis, this study reveals a range of different reasons underlying the internationalization strategies of Spanish MNEs and the different goals they pursue. It may be concluded that projection connectionist techniques are of immense assistance in the process of identifying the internationalization strategies of Spanish MNEs, their underlying motives and the goals they pursue. The second case study covers several risk categories that include task policy, security, and political stability among others, and it tracks the scores of different countries all over the world. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the application of several business intelligence solutions based on neural projection models, which support data analysis in the context of country and political risk analysisAlfredo Jimenez Palmero is grateful for the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the FPU programme. This research has been partially supported through the Junta of Castilla and Leon under project BU006A08; the Spanish Ministry of Education and Innovation under project CIT-020000-2008-2 and CIT-020000-2009-12. The authors would also like to thank the vehicle interior manufacturer, Grupo Antolin Ingenieria S.A., under project MAGNO2008-1028.- CENIT Project funded by the Spanish Government

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