PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MEMPREDIKSI TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS

Abstract

From 2010 to 2022, crime in Indonesia, especially Maluku Province, tends to increase compared to previous years. Considering these problems, a crime rate prediction system is needed so that the Maluku Provincial Police is able to estimate the quantity and type of crime that is likely to occur in the future. One of the prediction methods that has been used for crime prediction is Exponential Smoothing (ES). The Smoothing  method is applied to obtain predictions based on time-series data. In this discussion, the author will compare the forecasting methods  of Double Exponential Smoothing, and Triple Exponential Smoothing. The Double Exponential Smoothing  method is suitable to be used to provide forecasting results when a data has a  certain trend  pattern. This Triple Exponential Smoothing  method is used when there are still dominant expression elements &; seasonal conduite shown in the data. The MAPE value for  the Double Exponential Smoothing method is 20.69552 and for the Triple Exponential Smoothing method is 30.48323, it can be said that  the MAPE value  of the Double Exponential Smoothing method is smaller than the Triple  Exponential Smoothing  method. So that  the Double Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate than the Triple Exponential Smoothing  method to predict the crime rate

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