2009: Cholera epidemics, war and disasters around Goma and Lake Kivu: an eight-year survey. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Abstract

Background: During the last eight years, North and South Kivu, located in a lake area in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, have been the site of a major volcano eruption and of numerous complex emergencies with population displacements. These conditions have been suspected to favour emergence and spread of cholera epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings: In order to assess the influence of these conditions on outbreaks, reports of cholera cases were collected weekly from each health district of North Kivu (4,667,699 inhabitants) and South Kivu (4,670,121 inhabitants) from 2000 through 2007. A geographic information system was established, and in each health district, the relationships between environmental variables and the number of cholera cases were assessed using regression techniques and time series analysis. We further checked for a link between complex emergencies and cholera outbreaks. Finally, we analysed data collected during an epidemiological survey that was implemented in Goma after Nyiragongo eruption. A total of 73,605 cases and 1,612 deaths of cholera were reported. Time series decomposition showed a greater number of cases during the rainy season in South Kivu but not in North Kivu. Spatial distribution of cholera cases exhibited a higher number of cases in health districts bordering lakes (Odds Ratio 7.0, Confidence Interval range 3.8–12.9). Four epidemic reactivation