The future of Global Trade and the WTO Jean-Pierre Cling 1

Abstract

The global governance of trade is in a deadlock and the WTO is suffering from a long standing crisis of legitimacy. This is confirmed by the eventual failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in 2011. This paper shows the connection between this crisis and the restructuring of world trade which has been going on for the last few decades, and which is set to continue. New emerging powers (China, India, etc.) are increasing their share of world trade which corresponds to new forms of globalization. This process calls for a reform of world trade governance, especially of the missions of WTO within a renovated economic world order. In order to identify the key channels through which international trade integration will impact the world economy, this paper presents four scenarios of world trade governance from now until 2030