Chapter 10

Abstract

Our purpose in this chapter is to help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable households in Nigeria. We do this by reviewing current data on agriculture and economic development, modeling anticipated changes in climate between now and 2050, using crop models to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, and globally modeling supply and demand for food to predict food price trends. Vulnerability to climate change is considered high in developing countries due to social, economic, and environmental conditions that amplify susceptibility to negative impacts and contribute to a low capacity to cope with and adapt to climate hazards. Because of the high level of vulnerability in developing countries, there is an urgent need to understand the threats from climate change that they face, formulate policies that mitigate the risks, and take necessary action. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry et al. 2007) observed that information abou