Implementing Weibull Distribution to Generate Prediction Function for National Final Examination in Papua Province

Abstract

One of Indonesia government’s program which is being implemented in the last ten years is to increase the education quality nationally. One of the education quality standards is final examination. Final examination is a concrete form of what the school has given before, during, and after the learning process, so the result of school policy in conducting learning process can be known from the national final examination score. Hence, the result of final examination is totally important to be analyzed and predicted based on the classification tested knowledge field. This thesis examines about the method for estimating the parameters of Weilbul distribution with likelihood estimation maximum method by using newton raphson iteration to the final examination score in Papua province. The result of this research is a distribution function which can be used to predict the next year national final examination score based on the previous condition and score that the students achieved. The function of the prediction that has been found before can be used to estimate what kind of condition can be applied to improve the learning quality so that the score of final examination will be better than before