2007) Electoral Budget Cycles under Authoritarianism: Economic Opportunism in Mubarak's

Abstract

Do authoritarian regimes manipulate economic policy in the run-up to elections? Implicit in traditional models of electoral budget cycles is the idea that voters hold their politicians accountable for poor economic performance in democratic societies. I argue that authoritarian rulers manipulate the economy in many of the same ways that democratically-elected leaders hope to, though with a significant advantage — authoritarians are seldom subject to the same institutional norms of independent economic policymaking found in democracies. I investigate the existence of opportunistic electoral budget cycles in Egypt — the most populous and politically significant country in the Middle East — during the twentyfive years of electoral authoritarianism under current president Hosni Mubarak. I describe the specific mechanisms by which the regime courts three important constituencies: public sector employees, farmers, and the urban poor. Quantitative analysis suggests that these budget manipulations have a number of tangible effects including election-year inflation, a pre-election drain on reserves, and even a higher level of per capita calorie consumption in election years