Energy and economy reality of oil future

Abstract

U radu se analiziraju neki aspekti energetskog i ekonomskog realiteta budućnosti nafte sa svrhom sagledavanja usklađenosti klimatsko-energetskih i gospodarsko-razvojnih ciljeva, imajući u vidu sigurnost opskrbe energijom i održivi razvoj, naročito manje razvijenih regija i država. Nafta je i danas (2022.) glavni energent EU-a s udjelom od 38% u ukupnoj potrošnji energije. Usto, rast potrošnje nafte u posljednje dvije godine je pokazao njezinu stratešku ulogu za vrijeme gospodarskog oporavka (2021.) nakon zdravstveno-ekonomske krize (2020.) i u uvjetima političke i plinske krize (2022.). Prema scenarijima BP Outlooka 2023 i Međunarodne Agencije za Energiju (International Energy Agency – IEA, 2022) potražnja za naftom bi se u razdoblju 2022. – 2030. trebala smanjivati za oko -5% prosječno godišnje, tj. 5 puta brže nego u razdoblju 2010. – 2022. uz izuzetno dinamičan rast potrošnje OIE, tj. za tri puta prema svega 18,2% u prethodnih dvanaest godina što se čini teško ostvarljivim, kao i snažan trend pada potrošnje nafte. Na to ukazuju i visoki udjeli i niske stope pada potrošnje naftnih derivata u pojedinim sektorima, posebno neposredne potrošnje u kojoj naftni derivati čine 77,5% zbog i dalje značajne potrošnje u prometu. Zelena tranzicija EU-a se odvija u uvjetima niza nestabilnosti i neizvjesnosti (usporeni rast s pojavama recesijskih razdoblja, slabljenje konkurentnosti, visoka inflacija, pad tečaja eura prama dolaru, diverzifikacija izvora opskrbe energijom iz sve udaljenijih izvora i dr.) što slabi ekonomski potencijal za ulaganja koja su nužna za energetsku transformaciju. Udjel BDP-a EU u BDP-u svijeta u 2022. je iznosio 14,7% (za oko 3 strukturna poena manje nego u 2010.), zatim 9,6% u potrošnji energije, 11,6% u potrošnji nafte i 7,9% u emisijama CO2 od energije (dvostruko manje nego u BDP-u). Usto, prisutne su značajne razlike u ekonomskoj i energetskoj razvijenosti među državama članicama EU iz čega proizlaze i nejednakosti u potencijalima za ubrzanu tranziciju, a pritom ne dovodeći u pitanje temeljne klimatsko-energetske ciljeve. Ekonomski i energetski potencijali naftno-plinskih kompanija koji su veći nego u pred kriznoj 2019. čvrsta su osnova i garancija sigurnosti opskrbe kako fosilnim energentima tako sve više i OIE, ali i mogućnosti većeg smanjenja CO2 iz naftno-plinskih operacija. Tome doprinose uglavnom sve kompanije neovisno o svojoj veličini i globalnom/regionalnom značaju.The paper analyzes some aspects of the energy and economic reality of oil future with the purpose of considering the coherence of climate-energy and economic-development goals, bearing in mind security of energy supply and sustainable development, especially less developed regions and countries. Oil is still the EU’s main energy source today (2022), accounting for 38% of total energy consumption. In addition, the growth in oil consumption over the past two years has demonstrated its strategic role during the economic recovery (2021) after the health-economic crisis (2020) and in the conditions of the political and gas crisis (2022). According to BP Outlook 2023 and International Energy Agency (IEA, 2022), oil demand should decrease by about -5% on average per year in the period 2022-2030, i.e. 5 times faster than in the period 2010-2022 with extremely dynamic growth in RES consumption, i.e. by three times compared to only 18.2% in the previous twelve years, which seems difficult to achieve, as well as a strong downward trend in oil consumption. This is also indicated by high shares and low rates of decline in consumption of oil products in certain sectors, especially the final consumption in which they account for 77.5% due to continued significant consumption in transport. The EU’s green transition is taking place in a situation of a series of instabilities and uncertainties (slowing growth with the emergence of recessionary periods, weakening competitiveness, high inflation, falling euro exchange rates against the dollar, diversification of sources of energy supply from increasingly distant sources, etc.), which weakens the economic potential for investments that are necessary for energy transformation. The share of EU GDP in the world’s GDP in 2022 was 14.7% (about 3 structural points less than in 2010), followed by 9.6% in energy consumption, 11.6% in oil consumption, and 7.9% in CO2 emissions from energy (twice lower than in GDP). In addition, there are significant differences in economic and energy development between EU Member States, resulting in inequalities in the potential for accelerated transition, without prejudice to fundamental climate and energy objectives. The economic and energy potentials of oil-gas companies, which are greater than in pre-crisis 2019, are a solid basis and guarantee of security of supply to fossil fuels and more and more renewable energy, but also the possibility of greater CO2 reduction from oil and gas operations. This is mainly contributed by all companies regardless of their size and global/regional significance