Bánhelyi Balázs

Csendes Tibor

Horváth József

Mester Abigél

Mikó Józsefné

English

University of Szeged

WHEN TO SELL THE ILL COW?Balázs Bánhelyi1, Tibor Csendes1, Abigél Mester1, Józsefné Mikó2,József Horváth21 University of Szeged, Institute of Informatics, Szeged, Hungary 2University of Szeged, Faculty of Agriculture, Hódmezővásárhely, Hungary banhelyi@inf.u-szeged.huIn Hungary hundreds of thousands of cows produce milk for us. A common disease of them is mastitis, that influences their productivity and profitabilitysubstantially. The usual practice is to decide on a rule of thumb basis whether the ill cow should be kept or sold. E.g. they are kept till the fifth mastitiscase occurs. The present study investigates this problemfrom a mathematical modelling point of view. The relative amount of the possible lost profit is in the order of magnitude of 10s of percentages, which is quite large, especially regarding the profitability outlooks of the dairy branch.The problem lies in the personal relationship of the farmers to the cows, and in the complexity of the estimation of the uncertain future scenarios. We present a model that is based on collected historical data on the distribution of several model parameters such as the length of the illness, the amount of medicine needed, the number of inseminations required to get into the next lactation cycle etc. The applied methodology is microsimulation (i.e. we simulate all possible event one-by-one) and stochastic optimization. Our typical result is a suggested decision on the basis of the expected value of the profit/loss for the given animal.The simple program that is capable to solve such problems with straightforward input data is available for smart phones and tablet (having Android 6.0 or newer operating systems) atwww.inf.u-szeged.hu/~banhelvi/BuuIn the conference talk we shall report on the first results that confirm our research expectations in terms of improvement of the business decision. The ongoing research will focus on a recommendation system type data mining technology that can utilize the local specialties of the actual dairy farm in question, and to validate the additional advantage involved in it.ReferencesEconomic modelling of the transition from a travel times based to a travel time based ticket system. Research Report for the Szeged Transportation Inc., in Hungarian (Az utazásszám alapú jegyrendszer időalapú jegyrendszerré történő átállításának gazdasági modellezése), KNRet, Szeged, 2010.Bemat Almasi and Endre Palatinus: Computational modelling of theeconomiceffect of thetraveltimebasedticketsystem (In Hungarian). StudentReseachCompetititon (TDK) University of Szeged, 2010.

When to sell the ill cow? : [abstract]

http://acta.bibl.u-szeged.hu/84287/1/wellmann_abstracts_2017_018-019.pdf

When to sell the ill cow? : [abstract]

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