Employment Implications of Transitioning to Net Zero: Revealing Transition Risks through Downscaling

Abstract

International audienceThe rapid phase-out of fossil fuels required to meet the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement raises concerns about sectoral decline and socioeconomic impacts. This study addresses the need to refine the assessment of employment impacts associated in transition scenarios. We investigate two climate change mitigation scenarios and a baseline using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and augment the overall analysis by incorporating a data science approach. We thus developped an enhanced coal nexus within the Imaclim-R framework and a sub-national economies dynamics module. The latter enables the results to be scaled down and provide qualitatively new information. The analysis quantifies job losses and their timing, highlighting regional disparities and vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating support policies for affected employees into carbon neutrality programs. Anticipation and rapid implementation of such policies are crucial. Understanding transition risks and developing appropriate support policies can enhance the feasibility and acceptance of transition pathways