Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication

Abstract

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We observe that 50\% of consumers have expectations consistent with the Income Fisher equation, 46\% with the Taylor rule and 34\% with the Phillips curve. For the Taylor rule and the Phillips curve we observe less consistency during recessions and with high inflation. Moreover, changes in the communication policy of the Fed affect consistency. The strongest positive effect comes from the introduction of the official inflation target. Finally, consumers with theory-consistent expectations have lower absolute inflation forecast errors