Unemployment, Sick Leave and Health

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between sick leave, income and unemployment. In particular, it investigates this relationship under the generous German sick leave regulation of 100\% wage replacement, i.e., in an environment where workers do not bear any direct costs from missing work due to sickness. Using information from the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP) I identify three stylized facts of sick leave in Germany. First, sick days show a strong pro-cyclical pattern. Second, average use of sick days is hump-shaped over income quintiles. Third, the number of sick days is a strong predictor of becoming unemployed. Using this micro-evidence I develop a structural model that rationalizes these facts. I argue that in absence of direct costs of sick leave the fear of future unemployment is the main driving force restraining sick leave. I then use the model to do counterfactual policy analysis