Groundnut is the basic requirement crop in Myanmar. This study concentrates
on the estimated trend equations like linear, quadratic, cubic models for groundnut
sown acre, harvested acre and production in Myanmar. In this thesis, the sown acre,
harvested acre and production of groundnut over the last 30 years (1988-89 to
2017-18) are studied and forecast values for next three years (2018-2019 to 2020-
20201) are made using best fitted cubic model. The required annual time series data
are obtained from the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) of Myanmar. This study
is intended to be able to choose the best model among models namely Linear,
Quadratic, Cubic. The best fitted model for the future projection was chosen based
upon the highest coefficient of determination (R2
), and the values of smallest MSE,
RMSE and MAPE by comparing with other models. The cubic model was chosen as
the best fitted model for sown acre, harvested acre and production of groundnut data
series. Using the cubic model, the values of groundnut production were predicted. It
was also found that the assumptions concerned with the production function model
are satisfied. In addition, the multiple regression model for groundnut production was
also obtained using sown acre, yields per harvested acre and irrigation. The double
log multiple linear regression model was chosen for the analysis
