The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate
change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent
(post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses
whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical
perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques
specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four
global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within.
Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface
temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is
detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge
to be detectable in the near future