Johnson, Todd R.

Wang, Hongbin

Zhang, Jiajie

English

eScholarship - University of California

UC MercedProceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science SocietyTitleOrder Effects in Human Belief RevisionPermalinkhttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/65k296dnJournalProceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 21(0)AuthorsWang, HongbinZhang, JiajieJohnson, Todd R.Publication Date1999 Peer reviewedeScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital LibraryUniversity of CaliforniaO r d e r  Effect s i n H u m a n Belie f  Rev is io n Hongbi n Wuii g (Hongbin.Wang@uth.tinc.edu ) Jiaji e /han g (jiajie.Zhang@uth.tmc.edu ) Tod d R .  Johnso n (Todd.R.Johnson@uth.tmc.edu ) Departmen t  o f  Healt h Informatic s Universit y o f  Texa s -  Housto n Healt h Scienc e Cente r 700 0 Fannin ,  Suit e 600,Houston ,  T X 7703 0 Psychologica l  investigation s o f  huma n belie f  revisio n hav e reveale d a  robus t  finding  -  th e orde r  effec t  (e.g. , Hogart h &  Einhorn ,  1992 ;  Zhang ,  Johnson ,  &  Wang ,  1997) . Generall y speaking ,  th e orde r  effec t  refer s t o th e phenome -non i n whic h th e final  belie f  i s  significantl y affecte d b y th e tempora l  orde r  o f  informatio n presentation .  Normativ e theories ,  suc h a s Bayes '  Theorem ,  ha s n o roo m fo r  th e orde r effec t  sinc e i t  simpl y violate s commutativity .  Conse -quently ,  th e orde r  effec t  i s  generall y regarde d a s ye t  anothe r bia s i n huma n reasoning . Severa l  theorie s hav e bee n propose d t o explai n th e orde r effec t  (se e Wang ,  199 8 fo r  a  review) .  The y ar e al l  base d o n a seria l  weight-assignmen t  mechanism .  Accordin g t o thi s mechanism ,  evidenc e item s ar e weighte d differentl y base d on thei r  position s i n th e presentatio n sequence .  A  primac y effec t  occur s whe n earlie r  evidenc e item(s )  ar e weighte d more heavily ,  an d a  recenc y effec t  occur s whe n late r  evi -denc e item(s )  ar e weighe d mor e heavily .  Differen t  theorie s diffe r  i n term s o f  wha t  factor s ar e importan t  t o determin e th e weigh t  assignment .  Fo r  some ,  th e differenc e i n weight s result s fro m memor y deca y s o earlie r  item s ar e weighte d les s tha n late r  item s (e.g. .  Mille r  an d Campbell ,  1959) .  Fo r some others ,  attentio n i s mor e critica l  -  attentio n decremen t makes late r  item s t o b e les s weighte d (e.g. ,  Anderso n 1981) . W a ng (1998 )  propose s a  differen t  approac h t o th e orde r effec t  i n huma n belie f  revision .  Thi s approac h i s base d o n tw o importan t  findings  i n th e fields  o f  epistemolog y an d uncertaint y management .  First ,  huma n belie f  ha s a  coher -enc e foundation .  Belief s hol d eac h othe r  a s a  coheren t  sys -tem.  A s a  result ,  i n term s o f  belie f  revision ,  ne w positiv e evidenc e doe s no t  necessaril y  reinforc e a  belief ,  an d ne w negativ e evidenc e doe s no t  necessaril y  discredi t  a  belief . Second ,  huma n belie f  ha s a  multi-componen t  structure .  A singl e probabilit y  numbe r  canno t  captur e al l  th e importan t aspect s o f  a  belief .  A  confidenc e dimension ,  measure d i n term s o f  th e amoun t  o f  previou s experienc e a  belie f  i s  base d on,  determine s ho w easil y a  belie f  ca n b e revised . The curren t  stud y aim s t o investigat e thi s approach ,  bot h empiricall y an d computationally . The probability/confidenc e distinctio n predict s tha t  th e orde r  effec t  patter n ma y chang e wit h differen t  level s o f  ex -perience .  Specifically ,  whe n on e gain s mor e experienc e abou t  th e environment ,  one' s confidenc e increases .  A s a result ,  th e orde r  effec t  tend s t o diminis h an d disappear .  Th e experiment ,  usin g a  seria l  tactica l  decisio n makin g task ,  i s designe d t o tes t  thi s prediction .  I t  i s  foun d tha t  participant s showed significan t  recenc y effect s a t  th e beginnin g o f  th e experimen t  whe n thei r  experienc e abou t  th e environmen t  i s litle .  Recenc y effect s disappeare d a s mor e trainin g trial s wer e performed .  Th e disappearanc e o f  th e recenc y effec t suggest s tha t  instea d o f  over-reactin g i n th e ligh t  o f  ne w evidence ,  participant s mad e mor e confiden t  belie f  judg -ments ,  whic h eliminate d over-reaction . UEcho,  first  propose d i n Wang ,  Johnson ,  an d Zhan g (1998 )  a s a n extensio n t o Ech o (Thagar d 1989) ,  i s a  conher -ence-base d mode l  o f  belie f  revision .  I t  i s  furthe r  develope d t o mode l  th e experimenta l  results .  Th e modelin g result s sho w tha t  UEch o i s  abl e t o captur e th e change s o f  orde r effec t  pattern s -  th e orde r  effec t  occur s whe n confidenc e i s lo w an d i t  tend s t o disappea r  whe n confidenc e increases . I t  i s  suggeste d tha t  th e fac t  tha t  UEcho ,  constructe d base d on rationa l  postulate s an d intende d t o prescrib e wha t  peopl e shoul d do ,  naturall y show s orde r  effect s (whe n th e confi -denc e i s  low )  convincingl y "debiases "  orde r  effects .  Th e ecologica l  implication s o f  th e orde r  effec t  ar e discussed . Acknowledgements Thi s wor k i s funde d b y Offic e o f  Nava l  Researc h Gran t  No . N00014-95-1-0241 . References Anderson ,  N .  H .  (1981) .  Foundation s o f  informatio n inte -gratio n theory .  N e w York ,  N Y :  Academi c Press . Hogarth ,  R.M .  &  Einhorn ,  H.J .  (1992) .  Orde r  effect s i n be -lie f  updating :  Th e belief-adjustmen t  model .  Cognitiv e Psychology ,  24 ,  1-55 . Miller ,  N. ,  &  Campbell ,  D .  T .  (1959) .  Recenc y an d primac y i n persuasio n a s a  functio n o f  th e timin g o f  speeche s an d measurement .  Journa l  o f  Abnorma l  an d Socia l  Psychol -ogy ,  59 ,  1-9 . Thagard ,  P .  (1989) .  Explanator y Coherence .  Behaviora l  an d Brai n Sciences ,  12(3) ,  435-502 . Wang,  H .  (1998) .  Orde r  effect s i n huma n belie f  revision . Ph.D .  Dissertation ,  Th e Ohi o Stat e University . Wang,  H. ,  Johnson ,  T .  R. ,  &  Zhang ,  J. ,  (1998) .  U E C H O:  A model  o f  uncertaint y managemen t  i n huma n abductiv e reasoning .  I n Proceeding s o f  th e Twentiet h Annua l  Con -ferenc e o f  th e Cognitiv e Scienc e Society .  Hillsdale ,  NJ : Erlbaum . Zhang ,  J. ,  Johnson ,  T.R. ,  &  Wang ,  H .  (1997) .  Th e relatio n betwee n orde r  effect s an d frequenc y learnin g i n tactica l decisio n making .  Thinkin g an d Reasoning ,  4(2) ,  123-145 . 823 

Order Effects in Human Belief Revision

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Order Effects in Human Belief Revision

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