Murphy, Robin A.

Valee-Tourangeau, Frederic

English

eScholarship - University of California

UC MercedProceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science SocietyTitleAction-Effect Contingency Judgment Tasks Foster Normative Causal ReasoningPermalinkhttps://escholarship.org/uc/item/2qw7j4tqJournalProceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 21(0)AuthorsValee-Tourangeau, FredericMurphy, Robin A.Publication Date1999 Peer reviewedeScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital LibraryUniversity of CaliforniaAction-Effec t  Contingenc y J u d g m e n t  Task s Foste r  Normat iv e Causa l  Reasonin g Frederic Vallde-TouriiiiRcau and Robin A. Murphy Departmen t  o f  Psychology ,  Universit y o f  Hertfordshir e Hatfield ,  Hertfordshire ,  U N I T E D K I N G D O M,  A L I O 9 A B p s y q f v ,  p s y q r a m @ h e r t s . a c . u k Abstrac t We repor t  tw o experiment s usin g a n action-effec t  causa l inferenc e tas k i n whic h subject s wer e aske d t o evaluat e th e importanc e o f  a n actio n the y performe d i n producin g th e effect .  I n Experimen t  1 ,  judgment s o f  positiv e an d zer o contingencie s wer e a functio n o f  th e actua l  action-effec t  contingenc y an d the y wer e no t influence d b y th e effec t  bas e rate .  Experimen t  2  replicate d thi s finding  bu t  di d recor d a  significan t  influenc e o f  th e effec t  bas e rat e on rating s o f  negativ e contingencies .  W e identif y a  numbe r  o f researc h avenue s tha t  ma y elucidat e wh y a n inferentia l  contex t involvin g instrumenta l  learnin g foster s causa l  inference s tha t approximat e s o closel y th e actua l  degre e o f  contingency . A reasoner who aims to infer the causal importance of a candidat e caus e i n producin g a  targe t  effec t  i n a  nove l domai n m a y b e unabl e t o recrui t  prio r  knowledg e t o hel p he r formulat e a n initia l  hypothesi s a s t o th e causa l  importanc e of  th e candidat e cause .  I n thi s situatio n th e contingenc y betwee n th e causa l  candidat e an d th e effec t  i s  a n informativ e cue .  Researc h ha s show n tha t  causa l  inference s i n suc h situation s ar e significantl y determine d b y th e actua l  leve l  o f cause-effec t  contingency ,  bu t  the y ar e als o significantl y influence d b y th e overal l  probabilit y  o f  th e effect .  Thus ,  i f th e targe t  effec t  frequentl y occur s the n subject s ar e mor e likel y t o attribut e greate r  importanc e t o th e causa l  candidat e tha n i f  th e targe t  effec t  seldo m occurs ,  eve n i f  i n bot h case s th e actua l  cause-effec t  contingenc y i s  hel d constant .  I n contrast ,  prio r  researc h usin g a n action-effec t  contingenc y judgmen t  tas k ha s reveale d tha t  subject s attribut e les s causa l importanc e t o thei r  actio n a t  hig h level s o f  th e effec t  bas e rate .  Paradoxically ,  then ,  a  passiv e learnin g procedur e foster s inflate d causa l  rating s a t  hig h level s o f  th e effec t bas e rat e wherea s a n activ e learnin g procedur e yield s deflate d causa l  rating s a t  hig h level s o f  th e effec t  bas e rate . . 1 0 0 — ,  \  1 — ^ 1  r 0.2 5 0.5 0 0.7 5 0.2 5 0.5 0 0.7 5 Effec t  Bas e Rat e Figur e 1 .  Mea n causa l  rating s i n eac h o f  th e si x actio n effec t contingencie s o f  Experimen t  1 ,  an d i n eac h o f  th e nin e action-effec t contingencie s o f  Experimen t  2 .  Blac k circle s correspon d t o th e positiv e contingenc y conditions ,  whit e circle s t o th e zer o contingenc y conditions ,  an d blac k square s t o th e negativ e contingenc y conditions . A carefu l  examinatio n o f  th e previou s experimenta l procedure s fo r  action-effec t  contingenc y judgmen t  task s reveale d tha t  th e contiguit y betwee n th e actio n an d th e effec t varie d acros s tim e intervals .  Tha t  is ,  durin g a n interva l  i n whic h th e effec t  wa s programme d t o occu r  followin g a n action ,  th e presentatio n o f  th e effec t  w a s delaye d unti l  th e en d o f  th e one-secon d interval .  A s a  consequence ,  i f  a respons e wa s recorde d a t  th e beginnin g o f  th e time-interva l the n ther e coul d b e nearl y u p t o a  one-secon d dela y befor e th e appearanc e o f  th e figure.  A t  hig h level s o f  th e effec t bas e rat e thi s degrade d contiguit y coul d sugges t  t o th e participant s tha t  somethin g othe r  tha n thei r  behavio r  i s causin g th e effec t  t o occu r  an d henc e attenuat e thei r perceptio n o f  th e causa l  effectivenes s o f  thei r  action .  Hence , hig h effec t  bas e rate s migh t  lea d t o weake r  causa l  ratings .  I n th e experiment s reporte d her e w e hav e remove d thi s variabilit y i n contiguit y b y ensurin g tha t  durin g th e tim e interval s i n whic h th e effec t  followe d th e action ,  i t  di d s o immediatel y afte r  th e actio n wa s performed . I n Experimen t  1 ,  2 6 subject s wer e expose d t o 6  condition s reflectin g th e factoria l  combinatio n o f  tw o level s o f  th e action-effec t  contingenc y (0 ,  0.5 )  an d thre e level s o f  th e overal l  densit y o f  th e effec t  (0.25 ,  0.5 ,  0.75) .  Rating s ar e plotte d i n th e lef t  pane l  o f  Figur e 1 .  Subject s easil y discriminate d betwee n th e tw o level s o f  contingency ,  bu t thei r  rating s seeme d generall y uninfluence d b y th e bas e rat e of  th e effect .  A  2-facto r  repeate d measure s A N O V A confirme d thes e impressions :  T h e m a i n effec t  o f contingenc y wa s reliable ,  F(l ,  25 )  =  65.2 ,  bu t  neithe r  th e mai n effec t  o f  th e effec t  bas e rate ,  no r  th e interactio n wer e reliable ,  bot h f s <  1 .  Experimen t  2  replicate d thes e 6 condition s bu t  als o include d thre e n e w condition s i n whic h th e actua l  action-effec t  contingencie s wer e negativ e (-0.5) . Th e m e a n rating s o f  th e 3 4 participant s ar e plotte d i n th e righ t  pane l  o f  Figur e 1 .  Exposur e t o th e negativ e contingencie s helpe d subject s calibrat e thei r  estimate s o f  th e positiv e an d zer o contingencie s better .  T h e effec t  bas e rat e seemed t o hav e influence d th e rating s especiall y o f  th e negativ e contingencies .  Th e mai n effec t  o f  contingenc y wa s reliable ,  F(2 ,  66 )  =  95 ,  a s wel l  a s th e mai n effec t  o f  th e bas e rat e o f  th e effect ,  F(2 ,  66 )  =  6.86 ;  th e interactio n w a s no t reliable . Our  procedur e maximize d th e contiguit y betwee n th e actio n an d th e effect .  I n thi s respec t  on e coul d argu e tha t  i n th e posifiv e an d zer o contingenc y condition s bette r contiguit y woul d catalyz e th e influenc e o f  th e effec t  bas e rat e sinc e wit h hig h bas e rates ,  subject s wer e expose d t o mor e perfectl y contiguou s pairing s o f  thei r  actio n an d th e effect .  Ye t  causa l  rating s i n condition s wit h hig h an d lo w bas e rate s di d no t  diffe r  significantly ,  a  resul t  observe d i n bot h Experiment s 1  an d 2 .  Th e stronge r  contiguit y betwee n an actio n an d th e effec t  encourage d bette r  contingenc y judgments . Acknowledgements Thi s researc h wa s supporte d b y gran t  R00022254 2 fro m th e Economi c an d Socia l  Researc h Counci l  (UK) . 821 

Action-Effect Contingency Judgment Tasks Foster Normative Causal Reasoning

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Action-Effect Contingency Judgment Tasks Foster Normative Causal Reasoning

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