The Impact Of Covid 19 On The Selected Turkish Financial Indicators: Empirical Evidence From Toda Yamamoto Causality Test

Abstract

Humanity has suffered from COVID 19 since December 2019. A global pandemic was declared by World Health Organization on 11 March 2021 (WHO, 2019). Pandemics such as bleeding fever, cholera, SARS, MERS, and swine flu have affected humanity throughout history. During pandemic periods, the measures, panic, decline in labor power, and consumption cause economic crises. Like other pandemics, COVID 19 has negative effects on countries, businesses, and households economically (Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt, 2020: 1). Many studies have found a statistically significant relationship between public health variables (life expectancy, maternal mortality, etc.) and the economy (Bloom and Sachs, 1998; Robalino et al., 2002). One of the public health elements that have direct or indirect effects on economies is an infectious disease outbreak. Infectious disease outbreaks directly affect economies with their impact on the health system, medical care, and supporting services (Mckibbin and Fernando 2020: 3). In the literature, studies are analyzing economic indicators with epidemics of different dates (Chen et al., 2018; Gong, Jiang, and Lu, 2020; McKibbin and Sidorenko, 2006). Although only one and a half years old, the economic effects of COVID 19 are extensively studied in the literature. Zhang, Hu, and Ji (2020) analyze the economic impact of Covid 19 in 12 countries. Zhang, Hu, and Ji (2020) argue that pandemic increases the risk in global markets, but the uncertainty and risk in countries change according to the situation of the pandemic. Huo and Qiu (2020) analyze the consequences of COVID 19 on the stock market in China with the Cumulative abnormal returns method. According to Huo and Qiu (2020), the retail investor reacted more strongly to the lockdown news. Baker et al. (2020) argue that the consumption of households changed radically during the COVID 19 pandemic process. During the pandemic period, households’ credit card, retail, and food items spending increased. Bartik et al. (2020) survey to put forward the COVID 19’s economic effect on small businesses in the USA. The survey includes 5.819 participants. 43% of the participants temporarily closed their businesses. Businesses reduced their employee numbers by % 40 percent. Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2020) argue that production, labor market activities, and employment were affected by COVID 19 negatively in the world. This study measures the relationship between COVID 19 case and death effect on financial indicators with the Toda Yamamoto Causality test

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