In the formulation of fisheries management plans required under the
Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976 specific attention is
paid to the "capacity" of domestic fishing vessels to harvest the predetermined
optimum yield on an annual basis. Capacity is interpreted in
this thesis as the technical harvesting potential of the fishing fleet
over a specific period of time. In this context capacity reflects the
size and composition of the fishing fleet of interest.
The primary emphasis of this thesis was to identify economic, factors
which affect harvesting capacity in the fishery. In this regard the long-run
decision-making behavior of individual fishermen was of interest since
the size and composition of the fleet, and hence harvesting capacity, is
affected by specific choices made at the individual level. A theoretical
analysis of the long-run decision making of individual fishermen was
developed and was followed by an empirical application to a sample of
fishermen who were active in the Oregon trawl fisheries during one or more
of the years 1970-1975. The theoretical discussion initially centers upon
those aspects of the fisherman's choices which detract from the application
of a contemporary flexible accelerator type model to the analysis of fisherman
decision behavior. Instead the logit approach was chosen to analyze
discrete choice decisions that occur at the individual level in the Oregon
trawl fisheries. Logit analysis is specifically designed to handle
qualitative dependent variables and theoretically allows for the differences
in decision rules among members of the decision-making population. In
addition, the results of the logit analysis at the individual level can be
extended to the population level to examine aggregate behavior of interest
to fishery policy makers.
The logit approach was applied to a number of individual decisions
that affect technical capacity and the distribution of technical capacity
in the Oregon trawl fisheries. The first logit model analyzed the decision
of whether to leave or continue trawling. The next logit specification
described the fisherman's choice of trawl fishery where the set of fishery
alternatives in the Oregon case is comprised of the shrimp, groundfish and
combination (groundfish and shrimp) fisheries. The last decision concerned
the fisherman's choice of fishing vessel where vessels were classified
according to gross tonnage and age.
In general the analytical results reflect the simplicity of the initial
specifications. Nonetheless, the potential of the logit approach for
analyzing fisherman decision-making behavior was reasonably well demonstrated.
Finally, several modifications and extensions of the preliminary
work were discussed which, in the light of more specific data, would lead
to a more complete, predictive and policy-oriented analysis of harvesting
capacity in the fishery