If not now, when? Climate disaster and the Green vote following the 2021 Germany Floods

Abstract

Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale natural disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the short-term electoral effects of the devastating 2021 Western Germany Floods on voter support for Germany’s major environmentalist party (Alliance 90/The Greens). Our study is the first to examine the impact of a major climate disaster on the green vote in a national election. The case examines a context where climate issues have been highly politicised, and the Green party enjoys a strong position as one of the major national political parties