Public opinion in authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Russia

Abstract

In this study we ask how information about the popularity of illiberal incumbents influences public opinion. Specifically, does information that the incumbent’s approval rating is declining (increasing) encourage some groups to report lower (higher) support? Which groups are more likely to update their views of the authorities in response to information about the levels of support the authorities enjoy in society? To what extent are changes in public opinion sincere, reflecting individuals’ privately held beliefs? Answers to these questions have important implications for research on the origins of incumbent approval and dramatic defection cascades in nondemocratic regimes