Detailed list of sub-use cases, applicable forecasting methodologies and necessary output variables, Deliverable D4.4 of the H2020 project LEVITATE.

Abstract

Work package 4 (WP4) within LEVITATE is concerned with gathering city visions and developing feasible paths of automated vehicles related interventions to achieve policy goals. City visions contributed to the project in assessing the impact indicators that are needed to be addressed for a useful policy support tool (PST). Previous deliverables of WP4 (deliverable 4.2 and 4.3) used backcasting methods to develop feasible pathways to reach these goals by using policy interventions related to connected and automated transport systems (CATS). These were carried out for the city of Vienna, Amsterdam andGreater Manchester.This deliverable summarises the work that has been conducted in the frame of WP4 and sets the scene for the core LEVITATE work packages (WPs 5, 6 and 7), which address the three main use cases of the project: Urban transport, Passenger cars and Freight transport. Further, the goal of this deliverable is to summarise a timewiseimplementation of different sub-use cases, and the forecasting methodologies that need to be employed to assess the direct, wider and systemic impacts of CATS. Discussion on the specific ways to study the impacts of the interventions using micro-simulationtechnique is conducted and the necessary outcome variables of the forecasting models are specified.The main contribution of deliverable 4.4 is a consolidated list of sub-use cases and output variables, and an indicative timewise implementation of the interventions. The list of subuse cases and interventions was evaluated against the available methods by performing a decision-making exercise among the project partners. From this evaluation, downselection was carried out during a plenary project meeting at the Hague in October 2019, to select the most appropriate and feasible sub-use cases and interventions. Later,these items were arranged on a timeline from present (2020) to 2040 to indicate possible arrival of the services, technologies or interventions due to the anticipated arrival of CATS. This gives an insight into what changes are to be expected in a future city.A small extract from Deliverable 3.2 (methods that could be applied to measure societal level impacts from CATS) is included in the current deliverable to provide a short summary of the methods available for forecasting societal level impacts. Since the systemic and wider impacts are somewhat dependent on the direct impact, traffic microsimulation method is the first choice to initially get direct impact. Therefore, this method is described in more detail. Further research is being undertaken in WPs 5, 6 and 7 to assess the impacts from specified sub-use cases in the most efficient way. To determinethese impacts quantitatively, a list of impact indicators is presented as output variables for the various methods that will be employed