An Estimation of Jobs Lost in Mexico during 2020 as a Result of the COVID-19: a Cointegration Approach/ Estimativa de empregos perdidos no México em 2020 como resultado do COVID-19: uma abordagem de cointegração

Abstract

An estimation of jobs lost in the formal sector during 2020 in Mexico is presented. In order to obtain the jobs lost figure, a labor demand as function of output and real wage is estimated according to the cointegration approach. The main result is that 205,863 jobs of permanent workers insured at the Mexican Social Security Institute will be lost by each percentage point that Mexican GDP drops in 2020 as a consequence of the quarantine needed to avoid the Covid-19 spreads even further. If the Mexican GDP drops 8.2% in 2020 about 1.69 million of this kind of jobs would be lost