Replication of the Hindsight Bias and extension on the role of depressive symptoms

Abstract

Replicability and reproducibility are essential for scientific credibility, promoted through open science practices. Mental health research often deals with variable and time-changing characteristics, making it challenging to implement these practices, especially in studies of social behavior and cognition. These studies must be investigated through replication-extension models to promote theoretical expansion and generalization. The seminal research by Fischhoff (1975) on hindsight bias is highly relevant, whereas evidence suggests interactions with depressive symptoms. However, few studies have explored such interaction and there are no replications with a Brazilian population. This project aims to conduct a replication of Experiment 2 of the Fischhoff study (1975) in hindsight bias in a Brazilian sample, including an extension to the original research to broaden its scope of clinical relevance in depressive symptoms. This will be a cross-sectional study conducted through a self-completed electronic form on the Qualtrics XM platform in a sample of 240 Brazilians over 18 years. The original material will be adapted to our population through cultural adaptation. Depressive symptoms will be evaluated through the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Bank v1.0 (PT-BR version). Following the Transparency and Openness Promotion (TOP) Guidelines, the study will be pre-registered on the Open Science Framework (OSF) platform and the Data Management Plan Tool (DMP Tool) was used for data management. Statistical analysis (comparison between groups and mediation) will be conducted using the R software