Centro de Investigación en Métodos Cuantitativos Aplicados a la Economía y la Gestión (CMA)
Abstract
Technology makes it possible to modify average results and their dispersion in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to carry out a comparative analysis of the risk levels of the livestock company of the modal system of the Bahía Blanca region and the technical model developed in the Demonstrative Production Unit in the “El Trébol” Establishment of the INTA Bahía Blanca. Which has incorporated drought-tolerant forage technologies and lactation reduction in the breeding cow herd. Based on the interaction of the historical probability distributions of the production of each model, the farm's sales prices and the unit costs, the probabilistic impact on the profit function of both systems was estimated through Marketed Asset Disclaimer by Monte Carlo simulation. With 10,000 iterations. A probability of achieving negative results was observed in the modal system and the technical system respectively of 38.95 and 3.77%, and higher than this level by 61.05 and 96.23%. The evaluated technologies integrated into the livestock system made it possible to achieve greater efficiency, productive stability, economic results and significantly lower risks in low rainfall regimes. In technical production models such as the “El Trébol” System, a 69.7% lower probability of obtaining economic results lower than the critical reference value of the zonal lease 21,751ha−1(25kgSteerIndexha−1)anda452.6 ha-1 (25 kg Indice Novillo ha-1) y un 452,6% más de probabilidades de alcanzar resultados superiores a dicho nivel