The nonindigenous sacred ibis (Threskiornis aethiopicus) was first discovered breeding in the
Florida Everglades in 2005 in the Arthur R. Marshall
Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. Prior to this,
sacred ibises were seen periodically throughout South
Florida since the mid 1990s, with occasional confirmed breeding occurrences in Miami-Dade and Palm
Beach counties. We used a logistic regression model
developed by Allen (Biol Invasions 8:491–500, 2006)
to predict the probability of successful establishment
of sacred ibis in the Florida Everglades ecosystem.
Empirical data collected from several sacred ibis nests
and chicks were used to validate those findings. The
probability of successful establishment was estimated
to be 73%. The physiological condition of nestlings
suggested that this species was able to fledge chicks in
good condition, thus adding to the potential to increase
their breeding population. Exponential population
growth rates and expanding distribution of the nonindigenous sacred ibis in France demonstrate this
species’ potential for becoming invasive in Florida.
We suggest that the most prudent and effective
management strategy is eradication of the few pioneering individuals that are nesting in the Everglades
as well as the urban source population