Objective To investigate the predictive role of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) in the assessment of response to total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods In this single-center retrospective study, patients with LARC who underwent staging MRI and TNT were enrolled. MRI-based staging, tumor volume, and DWI-ADC values were analyzed. Patients were classified as complete responders (pCR) and non-complete responders (non-pCR), according to post-surgical outcome. Pre-treatment ADC values were compared to pathological outcome, post-treatment downstaging, and reduction of tumor volume. The diagnostic accuracy of DWI-ADC in differentiating between pCR and non-pCR groups was calculated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results A total of 36 patients were evaluated (pCR, n = 20; non-pCR, n = 16). Pre-treatment ADC values were significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.034), while no association was found between pre-TNT tumor volume and pathological response. ADC values showed significant correlations with loco-regional downstaging after therapy (r = -0.537, p = 0.022), and with the reduction of tumor volume (r = -0.480, p = 0.044). ADC values were able to differentiate pCR from non-pCR patients with a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 70%. Conclusions ADC values on pre-treatment MRI were strongly associated with the outcome in patients with LARC, both in terms of pathological response and in loco-regional downstaging after TNT, suggesting the use of DW-MRI as a potential predictive tool of response to therapy
