1. Seeding native plants is a key management practice to counter land degradation across
the globe, yet the majority of seeding efforts fail, limiting our ability to accelerate ecosystem
recovery.
2. Recruitment requires transitions through several seed and seedling stages, some of which
may have overriding influences on restoration outcomes. We lack, however, a general
framework to understand and predict differences in these critical demographic processes
across species. Functional traits influence fitness, and consequently, trait variation could provide
the basis for a framework to explain and predict variation in life stage transition probabilities.
3. We used seed and seedling traits, and field probabilities of germination, emergence, seedling
establishment, and survival for 47 varieties of drylands grasses under two watering treatments
to identify critical life stage transitions and quantify the effect of traits on cumulative
survival through the first growing season.
4. Variation in germination and emergence probabilities explained over 90% of the variation
in cumulative survival regardless of seedling survival probabilities or watering treatment, with
emergence probability being the strongest predictor of cumulative survival.
5. Coleoptile tissue density and seed mass had significant effects on emergence and germination,
respectively, explaining 10–23% of the variation in transition probabilities.
6. Synthesis and applications: While the majority of functional trait work has centred on linking
leaf and root traits to resource acquisition and utilization, our study demonstrates that
traits associated with germination and emergence may have prevailing influences on restoration
outcomes. A portion of these traits have been examined, but there is substantial opportunity
to identify other key traits driving these demographic processes. These advancements will
underpin our ability to develop trait-based frameworks for overcoming recruitment barriers
and facilitating recovery of degraded systems across the globe.Keywords: seeding, path analysis, seed mass, emergence, functional traits, coleoptile tissue density, germination, hydrothermal time, demograph
