Rural farmers in Tanzania depend on subsistence agriculture for their livelihood. Poor soil conditions, and the danger of drought, increases the risk of cyclical poverty conditions. Aid organizations, including the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Millennium Development Projects (MDP), as well as industrial tobacco industry, have provided development programs with the goal of lifting those in Tabora, Tanzania from poverty. In this dissertation I investigate which household characteristics associate with adoption of agroforestry systems, and if those who have adopted are more likely to be food secure. Furthermore, I explore how development projects have impacted communities, through the lens of path dependence.
The first chapter uses multinomial logistic regression methods to explore household characteristics that associate with adoption of agroforestry systems. Findings suggest that short-term illness is negatively associated with the likelihood of adopting planted woodlots, whereas long-term illness is positively associated with the likelihood of adopting planted woodlots. This may be because once treed systems are established they need little maintenance to accrue benefits. Furthermore, access to a health clinic is positively associated with the relative odds of adopting partial intercropping systems, as well as planted woodlots; yet, negatively associated with planting of Gliricidia sepium. Evidence suggest that household health improves labor availability, especially for when agricultural systems require active management. Furthermore, credit access is positively associated with the relative odds of adopting treed systems. I also explore the use of mobile-banking, which significantly increases the relative odds of adopting Gliricidia sepium and the combination of Gliricidia sepium and woodlots. Access to banking and credit services may increase households’ ability to manage savings, purchase novel seed varieties, or hire labor.
Chapter two examines the impacts on food security of agroforestry adoption decisions by subsistence farmers in Tabora, Tanzania. Agroforestry systems, specifically, intercropping with pigeonpea and cassava, and planting Gliricidia sepium, have been introduced to rural villages in Tanzania to increase food security. In this chapter, I estimated an endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to account for unobserved heterogeneity in adoption behavior, and to measure the effect of agroforestry adoption on households’ food security using total market value of household agricultural production (TVP) as a proxy for food security. I used the estimated ESRM to predict counterfactual outcomes for adopters and non-adopters. I found that households who adopted agroforestry systems through ICRAF interventions were more food secure, compared to the counterfactual of non-adoption. Furthermore, access to agroforestry information through interactions with ICRAF, credit, and banking can all support agroforestry adoption.
Chapter three explores if past experiences with aid organizations impact potential future adoption of aid technologies. This chapter incorporates discussions from focus groups about the MDPs, as well as ICRAF and the tobacco industry, to better understand the impact and sustainability of aid projects. Unique to this study is the qualitative use of the path dependence. I found that households have experienced some poor long-term outcomes from development aid organizations. Yet, focus group participants were still open to accepting aid. This may be because some of the introduced projects remain partially functional. Furthermore, focus group participants reported that when aid organizations are actively in the village they experienced increases in economic activity through increased crop production. In this dissertation, using mixed methods, I provided some ex-post insights of the welfare effects and sustainability of aid interventions. Overall, the findings from this dissertation can assist aid agencies when targeting households for novel agricultural technology projects
