Objective: Residents of low-income neighborhoods are exposed to relatively higher rates of crime, fewer opportunities to exercise, poorer schools, and few opportunities to eat healthy foods than residents of middle-class neighborhoods. Policies that influence neighborhood context could therefore serve as health interventions. We seek to inform the policy debate over the wisdom of spending health dollars on non-health sectors of the economy by defining the opportunity cost of doing so.
Study design: Cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov model and Monte Carlo simulation. Methods: We assess the long-term health and economic benefits of Moving to Opportunity etype housing vouchers vs traditional public housing. Our Markov model draws heavily from decades of follow-up data from a large randomized-controlled trial, from which we make projections about health outcomes and costs.
Results: Restricted housing vouchers cost less over the lifetime of recipients than traditional vouchers (186,629[95148,856e229,235]vs194,077 [153,831−240,904]), while improving health and longevity (19.39 quality-adjusted life years [15.83 e21.35] vs 19.16 [15.65e21.03]). Over 99% of the model simulations favored restricted housing vouchers over traditional public housing or non-restrictive vouchers.
Conclusions: Restrictive vouchers appear to improve population health, save money, and save lives
