We develop a versatile framework for statistical learning in non-stationary
environments. In each time period, our approach applies a stability principle
to select a look-back window that maximizes the utilization of historical data
while keeping the cumulative bias within an acceptable range relative to the
stochastic error. Our theory showcases the adaptability of this approach to
unknown non-stationarity. The regret bound is minimax optimal up to logarithmic
factors when the population losses are strongly convex, or Lipschitz only. At
the heart of our analysis lie two novel components: a measure of similarity
between functions and a segmentation technique for dividing the non-stationary
data sequence into quasi-stationary pieces.Comment: 47 pages, 1 figur