Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Abstract

The pace of cost decline of offshore renewable energy technologies significantly impacts their role in the North Sea energy transition. However, a good understanding of their remains a critical knowledge gap in the literature. Therefore, this thesis aims to quantify the future role of offshore renewables in the North Sea energy transition and assess the impact of cost development on their optimal deployments. The following findings were observed in this thesis, 1) Fixed-bottom offshore wind is well established in the North Sea region and is already competitive with onshore renewables 2) Floating wind is emerging and their current costs are high, but it can reach about 40 EUR/MWh by early 2040 and would require 44 billion EUR of learning investment.3) Grid connection costs will become a major factor as wind farm moves further away. Policy actions and innovation is needed in this space to avoid increasing integration costs. 4) Offshore wind (fixed-bottom and floating) can play a significant role in the North Sea energy system, comprising 498 GW of deployments in 2050 (222 GW of fixed-bottom and 276 GW of floating wind) and contributing up to a maximum of 51% of total power generation in the North Sea power system. 5) The role of the investigated low-TRL offshore renewables, including the tidal stream, wave technology, and bioethanol, was limited in all scenarios considered, as they remain expensive compared to other mature technologies in the system