The idea that “Yield is King” fails to acknowledge that what matters most to farmers is farm profits and risk, rather than yield. This is because decisions made in one season will affect options and crop performance over the next few years. Therefore, quantifying the longer-term impacts of innovation adoption is important. We used the Agricultural Production Simulation model (APSIM) to simulate and investigate the implications of adopting rain-fed winter sown sorghum in the Australian northern grains region. Results indicate that within a crop rotation early-planted sorghum will tend to decrease median sorghum crop yields but increase the following winter crop yields. This appears to have a marginal economic effect in Breeza and Dalby but encouraging results in Emerald. The inclusion of chickpea within the rotation increased returns in the best seasons with little change to downside risks in poor seasons
