The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB

Burns, Kerry

Crawford, Winifred

Dreher, Joseph G.

Hoeth, Brian

Lafosse, Richard

NASA Technical Reports Server

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented

Dreher, Joseph

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Produced by the NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI) 
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20130010684 2019-08-31T00:09:40+00:00Z
Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at

Edwards Air Force Base, CA 
Joseph Dreher and Winifred Crawford 
NASA Applied Meteorology Unit / ENSCO, Inc. / Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida 
Richard Lafosse and Brian Hoeth
NOAAINWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group / Houston, Texas 
Kerry Burns

Marshall Space Flight Center I Huntsville, Alabama 
The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As 
defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order 
to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight 
Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate 
peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind 
forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user 
interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind 
thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must 
land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy 
Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed 
for EAFB. 
Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute 
average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997-
2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the 
average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, 
direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical 
and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability 
density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which 
allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from 
the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within 
Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and 
likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and 
probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.
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17-07-2008 Abstract April 2008 - July 2008 
4. TiTLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 
Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards NNKO6MA7OC 
5b. GRANT NUMBER Air Force Base, CA
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 
Joseph Dreher 
Winifred Crawford 5e. TASK NUMBER 
Richard Lafosse 
Brian Hoeth 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER Kerty Burns 
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REPORT NUMBER 
12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 
Unclassified, Unlimited 
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 
14. ABSTRACT 
The abstract descibes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind 
climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB). Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 
personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway 
at EAFB from 1997-2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. 
The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of 
peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using 
probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display 
different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The 
GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods 
in a fast-paced operational environment. 
15. SUBJECT TERMS 
Meteorology, weather, climatology, Space Shuttle landings, Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), wind tower network, Graphical User 
Interface (GUT), peak winds, forecasts, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Microsoft, Visual Basic, PivotTables, macro, 
probability 
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Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

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