Extracting useful information from noisy near-term quantum simulations
requires error mitigation strategies. A broad class of these strategies rely on
precise characterization of the noise source. We study the robustness of such
strategies when the noise is imperfectly characterized. We adapt an Imry-Ma
argument to predict the existence of a threshold in the robustness of error
mitigation for random spatially local circuits in spatial dimensions D≥2: noise characterization disorder below the threshold rate allows for error
mitigation up to times that scale with the number of qubits. For
one-dimensional circuits, by contrast, mitigation fails at an O(1)
time for any imperfection in the characterization of disorder. As a result,
error mitigation is only a practical method for sufficiently well-characterized
noise. We discuss further implications for tests of quantum computational
advantage, fault-tolerant probes of measurement-induced phase transitions, and
quantum algorithms in near-term devices.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure