This report projects cumulative demographic and economic effects expected from the federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas lease sale program in Alaska. Econometric modeling techniques are used to develop projections including and excluding OCS exploration and development for the state of Alaska and the state's Southcentral region.
The projected cumulative effects of the OCS program include and increase of approximately 3.5 percent in state population and employment and a modest decline in real per capita state expenditures. The statewide employment and population effects grow as OCS development proceeds but diminish very slowly as construction employment declines in the late 1990s. The effects grow more slowly in the Southcentral Region, continuing to increase until 2000 to reach or exceed the same percentage increases in population and employment as observed for the state as a whole. The delayed response is due to the importance of the support sector in projected Alaska economic growth, especially in the Southcentral region.Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Region
Prepared under contract number 14-12-0001-30139Ye
