This report represents an initial attempt to incorporate available
hunting and fishing harvest data gathered by the Alaska Department of
Fish and Game into a comprehensive framework employing econometric modeling to forecast future hunting pressure on the state's game resources.
This project was fraught with difficulties at every turn, not the least
of which was retrieving and formatting the hunting data in a form which
could be employed for our modeling experiments. Consequently, the project
could not have taken place at all without the ready cooperation of the
Alaska Department of Fish and Game, who generously made staff time available to us, and Mr. Ed Murphy of the University of Alaska Institute of
Arctic Biology, who supplied and ran the programs which made SPSS access
to the hunting data possible.
The population projections were made by Tom Lane, with the aid of
Mike Scott, while the hunting data manipulation, species habitat, and the
hunting effort programming and projections were handled by Bob Childers
and Bill Alves. Typing was done by Darla Siver and Marge Matlock.
We believe this study to be a useful first attempt to forecast
hunting demand in Alaska for long-range planning purposes. As funding
becomes available, the Institute plans future research in this critical
quality-of-life aspect of a rapidly growing state.The State of AlaskaForeword
Table of Contents
Table of Tables
Table of Figures
INTRODUCTION
DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS
A.
B.
c.
D.
Introduction.
Hunting Data.
- Missing Data
- Unreported Hunts and Kills
- Permit Hunts
- Geographic Compatibility
Resource Data
- Limitations
Human Population Data
METHODS: DATA MANIPULATION
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Introduction
Data Tapes
- Origins .
- Unknown Origins
- Destinations
Allowable Harvest
Travel Costs .
Resident Population Projections
METHODS: MODELING HUNTING PRESSURE
A.
B.
A Description of the Models Used
- The Model for Deer, Sheep, and Goat Hunting
- The Model for Moose Hunting
Directions for More Sophisticated Modeling
- The Concept of Accessibility.
- The Effect of Changing Leisure and
Vacation Time .
- Changing the Treatment of Intraregion Travel.
- Including the Effect of Management Barriers
- Quality of the Hunt .
Linear Model Incorporating Some
Suggested Improvements
- Importance of Travel Cost and Success Ratio
- Toward a More General Model
RESULTS
A.
B.
c,
Moose Hunting Projections
- Assumptions and Limitations of the Model
A Regional Overview
Scenario I ,
Scenario II
Scenario III
- Discussion of Moose Hunting Projections
Deer Hunting Projections ,
- Assumptions and Limitations of the Model
- Presentation and Interpretation of Results
Sheep Hunting Projections
- Assumptions and Limitations of the Model
- Presentation of Result
