TCT-113 Predicting the Risk of In-Hospital Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The PROGRESS-CTO MACE Score

Abstract

Background: Estimating the risk of complications in chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) facilitates risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning. Methods: We analyzed the Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention (PROGRESS-CTO; NCT02061436) and created a risk score for in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Logistic regression prediction modeling was used to identify independently associated variables and the model was internally validated with bootstrapping. Results: Of the 10,480 CTO PCI cases performed between 2012-2022 at 40 US and non-US centers, in-hospital MACE occurred in 215 (2.05%). The final prediction model identified 5 independent predictors of MACE: age ≥65 years, odds ratio (OR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-2.26, 1 point; female sex, OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.72-3.53, 2 points; moderate to severe calcification, OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.20-2.44, 1 point; Blunt stump, OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.14-2.33, 1 point; and Antegrade dissection re-entry, OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.32-3.72, 1 point; and retrograde strategy, OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.94-4.22, 2 points; with a bootstrap corrected c-statistic of 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76. The calculated risk percentages for MACE based on the PROGRESS-CTO MACE score ranged from 0.4% to 9.4% for MACE; 42% of patients had PROGRESS-CTO MACE score of 2-3, corresponding to a MACE risk of 1.1%-2.0%. Conclusion: The PROGRESS-CTO in-hospital MACE risk score can facilitate risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning in patients undergoing CTO PCI. Categories: CORONARY: Complex and Higher Risk Procedures for Indicated Patients (CHIP