Horton, Emily

Robertson, Suzanne

English

ISU ReD: Research and eData

Presentation for the Symposium on BEER November 2023MSIS-Robertson: A stochastic multi-host model forWest Nile virusSuzanne Robertson1*, Emily B. Horton11Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23184srobertson7@vcu.eduWest Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne disease spread primarily between birds and mosquitoes that exhibitshigh spatial and temporal variability. The species of hosts and vectors present in a location are knownto have a large influence on disease dynamics. For deterministic ordinary differential equation models ofWNV transmission, an outbreak occurs when the disease is introduced into a susceptible population if thebasic reproduction number R0 is greater than one. For a stochastic model, however, disease extinctionevents can occur even when R0 is greater than one and outbreaks are not guaranteed. For diseases suchas WNV with multiple types of infected individuals, the probability extinction occurs depends on howthe disease enters the population. Here we present a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) model forenzootic WNV transmission between two species of avian hosts and a single mosquito vector, derived from acorresponding deterministic model. We use multi-type branching process theory to compute the probabilityof disease extinction based upon the type of individual initially introducing the disease into the population(an exposed vector, infected vector, or infected host of either species). We explore how the probabilityof disease extinction varies with the competence of each host species, the vector biting rates on each hostspecies, and the relative abundance of the host species, as well as the overall vector abundance. Theoreticalpredictions for the probability of disease extinction are compared to the outcome of stochastic simulations.We find that the community composition of hosts and vectors, along with the means of disease introduction,can greatly affect the probability of disease extinction.

MSIS-Robertson: A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus

https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1734&context=beer

MSIS-Robertson: A stochastic multi-host model for West Nile virus

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