Ghosh, Samiran

English

ISU ReD: Research and eData

Presentation for the Symposium on BEER November 2023Effect of under-reporting, vaccine efficiency and socialbehavior on epidemic progressionSamiran Ghosh1,*, Alonso Ogueda-Oliva2, Aditi Ghosh3, Malay Banerjee1, PadmanabhanSeshaiyer21Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur - 208016, India2George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA3Texas A&M University-Commerce, Commerce, 75429, TX, USsamiran@iitk.ac.inIn late 2019, the emergence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, led to the implementation of stringent measuresforming the zero-COVID policy aimed at eliminating transmission. Zero-COVID policy basically aimedat completely eliminating the transmission of COVID-19. However, the relaxation of this policy in late2022 reportedly resulted in a rapid surge of COVID-19 cases. We investigate the factors contributing tothis outbreak using a new SEIR-type epidemic model with time-dependent level of immunity. Our modelincorporates a time-dependent level of immunity considering vaccine doses administered and time-post-vaccination dependent vaccine efficacy. We find that vaccine efficacy plays a significant role in determiningthe outbreak size and maximum number of daily infected. Additionally, with the help of imitation dynamicsof under-reporting in daily cases and deaths, we understand the effect of social behavior on the outbreakmagnitude. Moreover, we discuss a Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) approach which is extremelyuseful in estimating critical parameters and helps in evaluating the predictive capability of our model.

Effect of under-reporting, vaccine efficiency and social behavior on epidemic progression

https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1776&context=beer

Effect of under-reporting, vaccine efficiency and social behavior on epidemic progression

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ISU ReD: Research and eData