Impact of Air-to-Air Heat Pumps on Energy and Climate in a Mid-Latitude City

Abstract

Exploring the potential effects of transitioning entirely to air-to-air heat pumps (AAHPs), we use an integrated weather and heat pump model to understand their performance across several building and weather conditions in Toulouse, France. In central Toulouse, where electric and gas heating are similarly adopted, a shift to AAHPs cuts annual electric consumption. Yet, during colder periods, a drop in their efficiency can cause a spike in electricity use. In regions predominantly relying on non-electric heaters, such as gas boilers, introducing AAHPs is expected to increase electricity demand as the heating system transitions to all-electric, though to a lesser extent and with much greater efficiency than traditional systems such as electric resistive heaters. In a separate analysis to evaluate the impact of AAHPs on local climate conditions, we find that AAHPs have a small influence of about 0.5 {\deg}C on the outdoor air temperature. This change is thus unlikely to meaningfully alter AAHPs' performance through feedback.Comment: Submitted manuscrip