This policy brief examines the three new national security documents that Japan issued at the end of 2022. It argues that the origins of the changes announced by these documents, including Japan’s plan to increase defense spending by 60% and its decision to acquire a modest counter-strike capability with long-range missiles is not rooted in recent geopolitical develops concerning Ukraine or Taiwan, but is in fact the culmination of a decade long effort to strengthen Japan’s territorial defense, especially of the Senkaku islands. In short, the changes announced in late 2022 represent a doubling down on territorial defense, not the emergence of a direct military role in regional security
