Alexander, N. S.

Corradini, A.

Da Re, D.

Dagostin, F.

Dub, T.

Erazo, D.

Marini, G.

Mäkelä, H.

Olyazadeh, R.

Rizzoli, A.

Tagliapietra, V.

Wint, W.

English

Mäkelä, H.

Archivio istituzionale della ricerca - Fondazione Edmund Mach

9/25/23, 10:54 AM R04.3 Combining key hazard- and exposure-related drivers to model the probability of occurrence of TBE human cases in Europe | GeoVet 2023 International Conferencehttps://www.veterinariaitaliana.izs.it/index.php/GEOVET23/article/view/3226 1/2GeoVet 2023 International Conference, SPATIAL METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EPIDEMIOLOGYPublished 2023 09 06R04.3 Combining key hazard- and exposure-related drivers to model the probabilityof occurrence of TBE human cases in EuropeFrancesca DagostinFondazione Edmund MachDiana ErazoSpatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, BelgiumGiovanni MariniResearch and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige  TN , ItalyDaniele Da ReCenter for Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, Trento, ItalyValentina TagliapietraResearch and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige  TN , ItalyAndrea CorradiniResearch and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige  TN , ItalyWilliam WintEnvironmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, c/o Dept Zoology, Oxford, United KingdomNeil S. AlexanderEnvironmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, c/o Dept Zoology, Oxford, United KingdomRoya OlyazadehEnvironmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, c/o Dept Zoology, Oxford, United KingdomHenna MäkeläDepartment of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, FinlandTimothée DubDepartment of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, FinlandAnnapaola RizzoliResearch and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige  TN , ItalyKeywordsBoosted regression trees, Disease mapping, Human cases, Species Distribution Models, Tick-borne encephalitis, Vector-bornediseasesCategoryRegular Oral Presentation9/25/23, 10:54 AM R04.3 Combining key hazard- and exposure-related drivers to model the probability of occurrence of TBE human cases in Europe | GeoVet 2023 International Conferencehttps://www.veterinariaitaliana.izs.it/index.php/GEOVET23/article/view/3226 2/2✉ geovet23@izs.itAbstractIn the last decade, the number of tick-borne encephalitis  TBE  human cases reported in Europe has increased both in endemicand in non-endemic areas  European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2022 . The geographical occurrence of TBEvis fragmented with “foci of infection” (“hotspots”) that are difficult to identify and often vary in space and time  Dobler etal.,2011 . To improve the capability to identify the European regions at high risk of outbreaks, we developed a spatio-temporalpredictive model inferring the year-to-year probability of occurrence of TBE human cases in Europe.We used data provided by the European Surveillance System  TESSy, ECDC  to infer the distribution of TBE human cases atthe regional  NUTS3  level during the period 2017 2021. We included variables related to temperature, precipitation, land coverand ticks’ hosts presence to account for the natural hazard of viral circulation. We also used indexes based on recordedintensities of human outdoor activity in forests as proxies of human exposure to tick bites. We identified the yearly probabilityof TBE occurrence using a boosted regression tree modeling framework.Areas with higher probability for transmission were identified in Central-Eastern Europe and along the coastline of Nordiccountries up to the Bothnian Bay. Our results highlighted a westbound and northbound spread of TBE-positive regionsthroughout the years. Areas at higher risks are characterized by the occurrence of key rodent reservoir and cervid species,intense human recreational activities in forests, steep drops in late summer temperatures and high annual precipitationamounts. The predictive accuracy of the model was assessed through internal and external validation  AUC   0.84; CBI  0.98 .Our study provides an assessment of the European regions at risk of TBE human infections on a yearly basis. Our results cantherefore be used to evaluate the yearly risk of occurrence of TBE human infections, at different spatial scales, and to supportsurveillance and prevention campaigns within endemic and potential new risk areas.ReferencesDobler, G., Hufert, F., Pfeffer, M., & Essbauer, S.  2011 . Tick-borne encephalitis: From microfocus to human disease. In H.Mehlhorn  Ed.), Progress in parasitology (pp. 323 331 . Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 10.1007/978 3 642 21396 0_17European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control  2022 . Tick-borne encephalitis. In: ECDC. Annual epidemiological reportfor 2020. Stockholm: ECDC.

Combining key hazard- and exposure-related drivers to model the probability of occurrence of TBE human cases in Europe

https://openpub.fmach.it/bitstream/10449/82035/1/2023%20GeoVet%20Dagostin.pdf

Combining key hazard- and exposure-related drivers to model the probability of occurrence of TBE human cases in Europe

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