From the fires that devastated California’s Napa Valley and many Australian wine regions, to frost and hail events and extended drought in North America and Europe, there is growing evidence of the vulnerability of grape growing and wine making to changes in climate variability and extremes. Climate change impacts do not occur in isolation however; they have the potential to cascade across interconnected systems, creating new risks and exacerbating existing ones. This is particularly relevant for climate sensitive and water-dependent primary industries, such as viticulture. Enhancing the industry’s capacity to anticipate and mitigate identifiable risks, buffer against unexpected risk and increase their adaptive capacity is urgently required to secure economic resilience.
Wine and viticulture is New Zealand’s fastest growing primary industry. Furthermore, it is relatively concentrated in small areas, characteristic of its dependence on suitable combinations of temperature, precipitation and soil types. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, rely extensively on linear outcome-oriented modelling to assess likely impacts and implications using probabilistic and biophysical modelling. There is an urgent need however, to better understand the context for adaptation, the interactions, synergies and potential trade-offs between strategies and the barriers and limits to adaptation, particularly in relation to water-limited futures. Responding to multiple, interacting and compounding stressors requires innovative and practical solutions from the industry. The New Zealand wine industry is aware of these risks, and are actively considering ways to mitigate and adapt to changing environmental conditions.
Drawing on results of industry surveys, in-depth, semi-structured interviews with grape growers, wine makers and industry stakeholders, and analysis of secondary data, a ‘‘bottom-up’’ contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. Preliminary findings demonstrate the combined effects of the interaction and implications of climate change and changing water availability on the Marlborough wine industry; source for more than two-thirds of New Zealand’s wine production. Climatic conditions, workforce availability and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects and compound existing demands on irrigation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required
