Objective: To describe the incidence and progression of radiographic and symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (rHOA and sxHOA) in a large community-based cohort. Design: Data were from the Johnston County OA Project (1999–2015, 12 ± 1.2 years follow-up, age 45+). Participants had bilateral hand radiographs each visit, read for Kellgren–Lawrence grade (KLG) at 30 joints. We defined rHOA as KLG ≥2 in ≥1 joint. SxHOA was defined in a hand/joint with rHOA and self-reported symptoms or tenderness on exam. Incidence was assessed in those without, while progression was assessed in those with, baseline rHOA. Proportions or medians are reported; differences by sex and race were assessed using models appropriate for dichotomous or continuous definitions, additionally adjusted for age, education, body mass index (BMI), and weight change. Results: Of 800 participants (68% women, 32% African American, mean age 60 years), 327 had baseline rHOA and were older, more often white and female, than those without rHOA (n = 473). The incidence of HOA was high, for rHOA (60%) and for sxHOA (13%). Women were more likely than men to have incident HOA, particularly for distal interphalangeal joint radiographic osteoarthritis (DIP rOA) (adjusted odds ratios (aOR) 1.60 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) [1.03, 2.49]) and sxHOA (aOR 2.98 [1.50, 5.91]). Progressive HOA was more similar by sex, although thumb base rOA progressed more frequently in women than in men (aOR 2.56 [1.44, 4.55]). Particularly HOA incidence, but also progression, was more frequent among whites compared with African Americans. Conclusion: This study provides much needed information about the natural history of HOA, a common and frequently debilitating condition, in the general population
