This paper is the result of a scenario-building exercise that NDI conducted in October and November 2022 with African, American and European analysts. Through the exercise, NDI sought to better understand potential trajectories of Russian influence in Africa over the next three years (2023–2025), especially developments that could have implications for democracy on the continent. This scenario exercise involved: background papers on various aspects of Russia's engagement in Africa; an online scenario-building workshop with African, American and European analysts; the development of four scenarios, each reflecting a different possible future identified during the online exercise; and further refinement of the scenarios based on consultations with selected analysts. Each of the four scenarios reflects a different combination of two key uncertainties: Russia's capacity to project power in ways that undermine democracy in Africa and the opportunities for Russia to do so
