Demand Forecasting for Food Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms: A Case Study of University Refectory

Abstract

Accurate food demand forecasting is one of the critical aspects of successfully managing restaurants, cafeterias, canteens, and refectories. This paper aims to develop demand forecasting models for a university refectory. Our study focused on the development of Machine Learning-based forecasting models which take into account the calendar effect and meal ingredients to predict the heavy demand for food within a limited timeframe (e.g., lunch) and without pre-booking. We have developed eighteen prediction models gathered under five main techniques. Three Artificial Neural Network models (i.e., Feed Forward, Function Fitting, and Cascade Forward), four Gauss Process Regression models (i.e., Rational Quadratic, Squared Exponential, Matern 5/2, and Exponential), six Support Vector Regression models (i.e., Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Fine Gaussian, Medium Gaussian, and Coarse Gaussian), three Regression Tree models (i.e., Fine, Medium, and Coarse), two Ensemble Decision Tree (EDT) models (i.e., Boosted and Bagged) and one Linear Regression model were applied. When evaluated in terms of method diversity, prediction performance, and application area, to the best of our knowledge, this study offers a different contribution from previous studies. The EDT Boosted model obtained the best prediction performance (i.e., Mean Squared Error = 0,51, Mean Absolute Erro = 0,50, and R = 0,96)