Muthoni, Francis K.

CGSpace

Monitoring climatic trends with remote sensing for evidence-based targeting of climate-smart agricultural technologiesFrancis MuthoniInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)Inaugural conference on accelerating agricultural adaptation in Africa (C4A)16 – 18 October 2023, Abuja, Nigeriawww.cgiar.orgThe climate change challenge▪ Agriculture in Africa is predominantly rainfed and highly vulnerable to climate change and variability (CCV)▪ Climate Smart agricultural (CSA) technologies are viable adaptation measures ▪ Spatial targeting to suitable context reduces their risk of failure and enhances adoption and efficient utilization of limited resourceswww.cgiar.orgClimate monitoring network in AfricaNumber of GPCC stations over Africahttps://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html ▪ Gauge network in Africa have relatively short and declining records, considerable data gaps and skewed to urban centres▪ Need to explore other data sources to complement the observation network e.g from the satellite remote sensing www.cgiar.orgSatelite-based monitoring systems▪ Reliable climate services are critical for localized targeting of climate smart agricultural (CSA) technologies▪ Satellite-based climate data available at reasonable accuracy and resolution ▪ Spatial-temporal trends generated from this data provide evidence on what CSA technology should be promoted wherewww.cgiar.orgSources of Satelite-based climate data▪ Climate data are increasingly available due to advancement in robust algorithms (machine learning) and fast computational powerwww.cgiar.orgClimatic trends in West Africa▪ June – Oct. rainfall increasing over Sahel, Sudan and Guinea savanna agro-ecological zones in West Africa▪ Significant warming observed in all months except August to OctoberMonthly rainfall trend Monthly Tmax trendwww.cgiar.orgClimatic trends in East and Southern Africa▪ Annual rainfall showed significant wetting trend in Zambia, Lake Victoria Basin between Uganda and Kenya and Central Tanzania over 37 years between 1993 – 2018▪ Increased agricultural potential but may increase flood events▪ Drying trend in central, SE Kenya and southern Tanzania▪ Targeting drought tolerant and early maturing cultivars plus soil moisture conservation measureswww.cgiar.orgChanges in timing of weather events▪ Timing of rainfall determines cropping calendar activities:▪ Onset dates determines the time for ploughing and sowing▪ Cessation dates affect crop harvesting ▪ Length of growing period (LGP) determines the choice of crop, cultivar and management practices LegendRainfall Northern Region MaizeLand preparation GroundnutPlanting SoybeansFertilizer App CowpeaWeedingFloweringDrought stress Upper East Region MaizeHarvesting GroundnutFallow SoybeansCowpeaUpper West Region MaizeGroundnutSoybeansCowpeaJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Junwww.cgiar.orgMonitoring rainfall onset dates▪ Onset progress along southwest to northeast direction in Ghana, but exceptionally early onsets were recorded in 2013www.cgiar.orgTrends of rainfall seasonality metrics▪ Late onsets West of 1.5oW longitude and early onsets West of 1.5oW longitude (+/- 19 days) in northern Ghana▪ Late cessations in most areas leading to longer LGP East of 1.5oW▪ Cultivars and management practices targeted depending on changing rainfall seasonalityOnset trend Cessation trend LGP trendEarlyLate LongerShorterEarlywww.cgiar.orgTargeting climate smart technologies▪ Information derived from climate services applied to guide spatial targeting of climate smart agricultural (CSA) technologies across Africawww.cgiar.orgEvidence based targeting of CSA▪ Information derived from climate services applied in spatial models to generate scenarios for investments in CSA Africa▪ Where does conservation agriculture (CA) produce higher maize yield than conventional practices (CP) in Africa?▪ Areas where yield advantage of CA over CP was high (>0.4 t ha-1) during drought season should be prioritized for scaling outwww.cgiar.orgTake home message▪ Climate data derived from satellite remote sensing platforms can complement sparse gauge network in Africa ▪ Trends generated from satellite data reflect climatic trajectories that are applied to guide spatial targeting of CSA technologies to suitable context to:▪ Reduce risks of technology failure▪ Enhance probability of technology adoption▪ Maximize impact with efficient allocation of limited resources ▪ Promote evidence-based agricultural investment decisionsThank you

Monitoring climatic trends with remote sensing for evidence-based targeting of climate-smart agricultural technologies.

https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/10568/132659/1/FrancisMuthoni_Monitoring%20climatic%20trends%20for%20targeting%20climate%20smart%20agricultural%20technologies.pdf

Monitoring climatic trends with remote sensing for evidence-based targeting of climate-smart agricultural technologies.

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

CGSpace