The ONS Longitudinal Study can be used to estimate the number of Windrush migrants in ways which go beyond the methods based solely on the most recent census, or on the Labour Force Survey. CeLSIUS estimate that in 2011 there were around 1,735 Windrush children who had entered the country (aged under 16) prior to 1971, and 3,744 migrants overall, who did not hold any passport

Dennett, A

Duke-Williams, OW

Shelton, N

Stockton, J

Stuchbury, R

Tomlinson, J

Xun, W

English

UCL Discovery

   The first ‘Windrush migrants’ disembarked from the Empire Windrush at Tilbury on June 22nd 1948, having been given the right to work and settle in the UK through the British Nationality Act 1948. Journalists including Amelia Gentleman writing in The Guardian, and politicians including David Lammy MP have highlighted cases of deportation and threatened deportation of Windrush migrants who have been long-term UK residents.  Amongst the questions raised has been the seemingly simple one of how many people might be affected. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have produced two tabulations from the 2011 Census (Tables CT08001 and CT0801), which identify the total number of people who were recorded in the 2011 Census with a country of birth in the Caribbean, and who self-reported arrival in the UK prior to 1971. CeLSIUS examined data in the LS in order to compare the number of LS sample members with the numbers reported in CT0800. Should the numbers in these two sources be comparable, then there is considerable scope for further analysis using the LS of migrants’ characteristics over a forty-year period. An estimated total of 110,397 Windrush migrants were present in 2011 in England and Wales (and who were also recorded in the 1971 Census and at least one other census), of whom 38,077 had been aged under 16 when they entered the UK. These figures are estimated from the counts observed in the sample; we use these estimates hereafter for ease of comparison with other figures. We also looked in the LS at passports held, using responses to a question included in the 2011 Census. Of the Windrush migrants, the vast majority (101,996) indicated that they held a UK passport. An estimated total of 7,853 held passports of other countries (in some cases in addition to a UK passport). We have tabulated those countries for which the sample observation was large enough to satisfy release clearance requirements. An estimated total of 3,744 persons did not hold any passports. The equivalent number reported in Table CT0800 was 5,193. The LS observations also allow an estimate that there were 1,735 persons present in England and Wales in 2011 who had entered the UK when aged under 16 and who did not hold any passport in 2011. Migrants born in Caribbean countries entering the UK between 1948 and 1971, who were recorded in England and Wales in the 1971 Census, the 2011 Census and at least one intermediate census LS sample members Population estimate n*(365.25/4) CT0800 value LS/CT0800  Sample members aged <16 at time of entry to UK Population estimate All ‘Windrush’ 1,209 110,397 144,395 76%  417 38,077 UK passport held 1,117 101,996 132,421 77%  319 35,703 Other passports held (inc. multiple) 86 7,853    31 2,831 Selected countries        Barbados 13 1,187      Jamaica 37 3,379      Trinidad and Tobago 16 1,461      Other passports held (no UK passport) 48 4,383 6,781 65%  18 1,644 No passport held 41 3,744 5,193 72%  19 1,735      The LS observations are lower than those in tables CT0800 and CT0801. The LS is a sample, and thus some variation would be expected when the sample data are multiplied to provide a population level estimate. Also significant are the selection criteria for the LS tables. Whilst the CT0800 and CT0801 tables required persons to be recorded in the 2011 Census, the results included here further require that each person was present and recorded in the 1971 Census and at least one of the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses, and that the individual was successfully linked in the sample. The ONS report ‘LS No. 11’2 gives detail on LS linkage rates and reasons why linkage might not be successful. Amongst the stated reasons for increased unsuccessful linkage is for persons born outside the UK. It is therefore possible that some of the LS undercount is represented by people who were in fact present, but were not successfully linked. Differences in the census questions used may also be relevant. We have used the responses in the 1971 Census to a question asking people born outside the UK about the year of their first entry to the UK. This is slightly different to the 2011 Census question on which table CT0800 was based, which asked about the most recent entry to the UK. The 1971 question response is less likely to be affected by any recall error, as it was much closer to the time of entry. Whilst the 2011 question allows people to self-report that they were present in the UK by 1971, the use of the 1971 question via the LS confirms that the person was present. We have used the relatively restrictive criteria that persons must be recorded in the 1971, 2011 and at least one other Census. By ensuring several time points, we identify a population for which more detailed longitudinal analysis could be carried out. The selection criteria also given a reasonable indication of continuous residency in the UK since entry. The nature of the LS is such that considerable further research on the Windrush migrants / Windrush children could be conducted. This might include outcomes of migrants in terms of occupations, educational qualifications and health. In the case of Windrush children who were co-resident with their parents at the time of the 1971 Census, their social mobility could be observed whilst adjusting for their parents’ characteristics. Linked mortality data would also permit the values reported here to be updated to take into account deaths in the time since 2011, and could thus adjust the more general counts produced by ONS in tables CT0800 and CT0801 The table overleaf presents data from the LS for persons identified as ‘Windrush migrants’ through a combination of year of arrival in the UK and country of birth, for whom linked census records exist in 1971 and 2011 and at least one other census. Country of birth was limited to the coded responses ‘Barbados’, ‘Jamaica’, ‘Trinidad and Tobago’, ‘Guyana’ and ‘Other and unspecified Commonwealth countries in the Americas’. The latter category does not include Canada which was separately coded. We have included all persons who entered the UK between 1948 and 1971 inclusive. This is slightly different to the CT0800 selection of ‘before 1971’. The 1971 Census was conducted in April 1971, and thus anyone recorded as entering the UK in 1971 would have done so before the date of the 1971 Immigration Act later that year. The table contains six columns of values: the first column gives the number of persons identified in the LS and the second column gives an estimate of the total number of persons in England and Wales, given that the LS is a sample. The third column gives – where appropriate – the equivalent figured tabulated in table CT0800, and the fourth column expresses the LS estimate as a percentage of the CT0800 estimate. The last two columns detail a subset of the persons included elsewhere in the table, by limiting the observations to those persons who were aged under 16 at the time of entry to the UK. We assume that the majority of these people travelled with their parents to the UK. These people are therefore the group usually identified in the press as Windrush children. Equivalent data was not included in Table CT0800 or in  separate figures that have been reported based on the Labour Force Survey.   Further project information from CeLSIUS: ucl.ac.uk/celsius Further information about the Census-based Longitudinal Studies: www.calls.ac.uk  The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. This work contains statistical data from ONS which is Crown Copyright. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. 

Windrush migrants in the ONS Longitudinal Study

https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10052473/1/celsius-windrush-v7.pdf

Windrush migrants in the ONS Longitudinal Study

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